As we dig deeper and deeper into hockey analytics, the wise move would be to continue looking at baseball Sabermetrics for inspiration. Now, obviously baseball and hockey are two completely different sports, especially when we try to measure them, One thing remains inherently equal though. Runs lead to wins in baseball. Goals lead to wins in hockey. It’s the deeper digging that will separate the sports further (what leads to runs or preventing runs versus what leads to goals or preventing goals), but the root remains the same. You want to maximize runs for. You want to maximize goals for.
At the basis of this core in baseball, sabermatricians have come up with ways to calculate expected winning percentage based off of run totals. These analyses have been proven to correlate VERY highly to actual winning percentage. Which led to my curiosity: Can we substitute runs for goals scored in these evaluation tools, and see the same correlations?
Bill James’ expected winning percentage formula is based off the pythagorean theorem, and is widely recognized as one of the most accurate winning percentage calculators in baseball. At first, the formula was (R^2) / (R^2+RA^2).